Once in a while in conversations one happens to come across some pretentious arse, who with a certainty that only undigested received wisdom can generate, advances the recommendation that one should “not assume”. The first reaction of any decent person is to mentally take a step back and apologetically reconsider the statement that prompted said free advice, and credit is due for that. Why? I hear you say, when it’s only normal to open up one’s understanding of the world to someone else’s point of view. Well, I’ll tell you why: because not assuming is against the very modus-operandi of our psyche. We would be lost and forever paralyzed in the absence of the assuming mechanism. All our actions, from the trivial morning teeth brushing to the life-defining acts like getting married, having children or taking up on that offer from that less than prestigious but promising employer, all are based on assumptions. And like all assumptions they are nothing more than casting a desirable outcome on an essentially inscrutable future. It is true and most recommendable that one shouldn’t assume but stick to the ground-rooted factuality of, well, facts. Unfortunately this is not possible when it comes to dealing with decision-making that inevitably involve the future for the simple reason that the facts we should stick to haven’t occurred yet.
I am not going to take the route of saying that any claim at solid prediction is a ludicrously futile exercise for the simple reason that one, regardless of intelligence, amount of data, computational power available can’t ever make an accurate prediction about the future for the simple reason that infinity can’t be grasped. This is based on the axiomatic reasoning that the tree of variables growing from a single starting circumstance by every possible outcome engendering at least two other possible manifestations which on their turn sprout new variables, and so on and so forth, that in the end any even remotely accurate prediction becomes impossible due of the infinite variables the system leads to. That has been already amply demonstrated and not the point of my current argument.
I will focus instead on how we are actually left with nothing else but to assume certain projected outcomes (which we can’t possibly guaranty because of the above mentioned demonstration) in order to be able to function socially and individually. So let me further lean on the power of examples: we brush our teeth in the morning assuming we’ll be alive in the evening, we marry assuming we will love and will be loved by our spouse forever, we take that mortgage assuming we’ll be able to pay it back, and the list could go on. Unfortunately ALL these assumptions are essentially FALSE and this is something any fatality by accident, any divorcee, any evicted living in a cardboard box is living proof of. So why do we still do it? Because we can’t do it otherwise! It’s a combination of wishful thinking and statistics. If we are even remotely lucid we should be aware that our life could end at any moment without notice, that we could join the ranks of those making divorce lawyers rich or those cueing for a bowl of social soup. But statistically there are more of us not dying before our life-expectancy, more clinging for whatever reasons in loveless and joyless marriages, more of us capable too keep our homes and make a living, and everybody assumes they will fall in this latter category rather than the former, despite not having any or almost any warranty for that. And this is nothing else than wishful thinking, or in other words, yes you guessed right: assuming.
So the next time that arrogant prick tells you not to assume, instead of following your most justified impulse of telling them to go fornicate themselves with an iron stick, gratefully thank them for such sound yet counterproductive advice. So is assuming the mother of all fuck-ups? It very well may be but it’s also what helps us get out of bed in the morning.